Not just some random thoughts…
china
Is It For Real?
Dec 9th
United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNCCC) 2009 or COP15 has been one of the most hyped multilateral event on the radar in recent times. The conference has gained unprecedented attention, both political and sentimental. The print media and NGOs coming together have resulted in mass public awareness and generated sentiments across the planet.
If we take an unbiased view of it, it appears to be a tussle between developed countries led by US and developing countries led by China. If we go deep, it appears to be a clash of two world powers with larger than life egos. While in earlier times, United States could have had it their way by the leverage they had on other countries and world politics, not to mention, EU rarely breaks away from United States official policy. Since it came to the term ‘developed countries’, it actually helped bind EU and US. While it might appear China along with India is leading the massive block of developing countries, in reality, both these countries have nothing in common and their wide ranging differences haven’t helped the position of developing countries.
What may conspire in Copenhagen is a farce, a game, a show-off that world leaders are coming together and trying to reach a consensus on the climate change issue. But in reality, the gulf between the two blocks is wider than most see. It’s not just about binding or voluntary emission cuts, as the general positions suggest. It’s more political. China wants a stronghold in world politics and wants a bigger say for itself. While India is still coming to terms with its new found importance and certain leverage, more moral than political, it has on certain countries around the world. Whereas the economic turmoil around the world have deeply hurt US and EU positions, both politically and influentially. Countries around the world no longer look at the developed nations for cheaper loans or grants. Asian giants such as China and India have spread their wings far and wide in Africa, which though politically, have marginal say on world scene but have far higher number of people being affected by the perils of climate change than Western world. The ongoing economic turmoil has resulted in a shift of power and Asia is clearly the driving force on the road to recovery. But differences among themselves, China – Japan, China – India, have resulted in US taking advantage. China did announced a voluntary target of 40-45% emission cuts from their 2005 levels, while India announced 20-25%, its still upon US (17% emission cuts announced) and EU to do more. China and India will be looking for deeper emission cuts from developed countries and also for financial compensation.
The truth is that COP15 is a glimpse in the future. A preview of things to come, where no single country or group of countries hold absolute majority or say in decision making when it comes to UN. It is also a reminder that the world politics is getting multi-polar or at least bi-polar from uni-polar.
CHINA ON A ROLL
Nov 13th
An interesting discussion on Global Warming yesterday took my thought process to a complete new journey which had nothing to do with Climate Change or anything related to that. Its pretty strange how the western paranoia and insecurity of losing the Super Power position is now taking fore in almost all global issues. While discussing Global Warming, a western yesterday complained how world doesn’t bother about actual issues like “nuclear proliferation, extreme poverty, infectual disease etc etc etc China.” Now apart from the last “so called problems” were pretty much general or non-country specific. But what about calling CHINA a problem?
Now, to make things clear, I am an Indian, a proud one, and its a very well know fact that India lost a border war with China back then in 1962 and the two countries are not the best of friends or neighbours. I also acknowledge that there is no comparison between India and China in any aspect. China is miles ahead let it be its Economic Strength, Military, Infrastructure Development and many things. But at the same time I myself am a critic of poor standards of human rights in China and the frequent unlawful executions.
But, in this blog post, I will write only about the paranoia and insecurity that breeds in the mind of many in the western world. China, the world’s most populous country is now the second largest economy (GDP-PPP) in world, second only behind USA. But the important thing is that during the worst recession after 1930s, China is still growing, though at a relatively slower pace whereas USA is contracting. China currently holds a foreign currency reserve equivalent to more than $2 Trillion. China is world’s largest exporter of non-defense products and the second largest outsourcing destination in the world. All this combined would definitely make China the world leader if we lived in a conflict free, unmilitarized world. But that said, we don’t. And unfortunately thats the only thing which always decides the balance of power in geo-politics.
That is only why USA is still considered the most powerful nation in world. But they know that China is catching up fast and they are doing everything to delay, if not halt, the progress. But, its inevitable and even Obama acknowledged it by visiting China before a Chinese state visit.
The balance is shifting towards the west of west.
