Not just some random thoughts…
Cimate Change
Is It For Real?
Dec 9th
United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNCCC) 2009 or COP15 has been one of the most hyped multilateral event on the radar in recent times. The conference has gained unprecedented attention, both political and sentimental. The print media and NGOs coming together have resulted in mass public awareness and generated sentiments across the planet.
If we take an unbiased view of it, it appears to be a tussle between developed countries led by US and developing countries led by China. If we go deep, it appears to be a clash of two world powers with larger than life egos. While in earlier times, United States could have had it their way by the leverage they had on other countries and world politics, not to mention, EU rarely breaks away from United States official policy. Since it came to the term ‘developed countries’, it actually helped bind EU and US. While it might appear China along with India is leading the massive block of developing countries, in reality, both these countries have nothing in common and their wide ranging differences haven’t helped the position of developing countries.
What may conspire in Copenhagen is a farce, a game, a show-off that world leaders are coming together and trying to reach a consensus on the climate change issue. But in reality, the gulf between the two blocks is wider than most see. It’s not just about binding or voluntary emission cuts, as the general positions suggest. It’s more political. China wants a stronghold in world politics and wants a bigger say for itself. While India is still coming to terms with its new found importance and certain leverage, more moral than political, it has on certain countries around the world. Whereas the economic turmoil around the world have deeply hurt US and EU positions, both politically and influentially. Countries around the world no longer look at the developed nations for cheaper loans or grants. Asian giants such as China and India have spread their wings far and wide in Africa, which though politically, have marginal say on world scene but have far higher number of people being affected by the perils of climate change than Western world. The ongoing economic turmoil has resulted in a shift of power and Asia is clearly the driving force on the road to recovery. But differences among themselves, China – Japan, China – India, have resulted in US taking advantage. China did announced a voluntary target of 40-45% emission cuts from their 2005 levels, while India announced 20-25%, its still upon US (17% emission cuts announced) and EU to do more. China and India will be looking for deeper emission cuts from developed countries and also for financial compensation.
The truth is that COP15 is a glimpse in the future. A preview of things to come, where no single country or group of countries hold absolute majority or say in decision making when it comes to UN. It is also a reminder that the world politics is getting multi-polar or at least bi-polar from uni-polar.
The Grown-Up Kids
Oct 24th
First it was P-5, than it became G-8, then came G-8+5, now it’s G-20. The number of influential nations of the world has grown steadily with the changing world order. From its foundation till the end of 20th Century, United Nations has remained a largely irrelevant organisation working on or around instructions from these influential nations.
The dangers that we face today aren’t from others, rather than our own mistakes and due to short-sightedness of our forefathers. The threats are mutual yet the thinking is pretty much individualistic. Every nation, big or small, rich or poor, powerful or weak, has their own perception of threat, but none the willingness to engage. The herald of new century has bought grave problems with it.
The grave challenge we face today is highlighted by the fact that even in face of natural calamities, our elected representatives cannot come together due to self interests.
In the last few years, major multilateral negotiations like Doha Development Round, nuclear negotiations with countries like Iran and North Korea, Middle East Peace talks etc. have failed or yielded little gains, mainly due to the unwilling parties. To reach to compromise situation, all the parties have to walk some distance, some a little, some a little more.
Countries like United States, China and India need to act responsibly to make the Copenhagen Conference a success, a milestone for the future generations, a guiding path for the survival of humanity. It’s been a long since the United Nations has been called an irrelevant group of unbending nations. It’s time to change the notion and set some things straight.
Today, on the International Day of Climate Action, we all stand on the crossroads of eccentricity and survival. It’s upon us to decide how our coming generations will remember us- as a selfish race or as HUMANS with heart.
Melting The Political Glaciers
Oct 15th
There couldn’t have been a better and more important topic to be chosen for this year’s Blog Action Day campaign - Climate Change.
For starters, here is an example of climate change simplified: Glaciers grow when climate cools and shrink when it gets hotter. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance. From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present. Mass balance data indicate 17 consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.
The glaciers are in fact one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change around the world. To put it into context, if glaciers continue to melt at this pace, the water level in our oceans (which some nations term as “THEIR OCEANS”) will rise exponentially resulting in submerging of land near the coasts and gradually growing further.
In essence, climate change is not a problem that would be talked around in the semi-urban or rural households of Africa or Asia and that’s where the problem lies. If we would have to put the problem in terms of stages of a critical illness where First stage being symptoms, Second being diagnosis, Third being the period when its curable and Fourth being the incurable stage, then we are more than half way through. The symptoms were evident- loud and clear, the diagnosis was rather delayed, and perhaps already in the Third Stage of the illness which is curable period. But for this particular illness, there is one more stage, somewhere between the third and fourth and that’s exactly where we stand- its curable, strings (no, not the super cool pop band from Pakistan, I wish they could have solved this) attached.
The climate change problem has entered a phase where it’s curable but with a lot of precautions and needs an urgency not shown ever before by anyone. Some wrong steps and it will enter the fourth stage without warning – the point of no return.
So the question arises how can we solve it? Now I won’t go listing down the number of things that we can and we must do in order to help fight the devil. Instead I would name the culprits who are NOT doing what they should be doing – cooperate.
Remember there was an assembly of some important and powerful world leaders in the steel-turned-green city of USA? The so called ‘LEADER’S’ statement of G-20 Pittsburgh Summit said the following:
“We will spare no effort to reach agreement in Copenhagen through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations.”
Do you know where the above commitment was placed in the communiqué? At number 29 out of 31 declarations- that’s where it stands in the priority list of our LEADERS. It might not be as forthcoming as Iran’s nuclear bomb (seriously, you people think they can build one?) or North Korea’s list of long range missiles (impressive, I tell you), but it definitely deserves univocal commitment, urgency and unrelenting commitment from our REPRESENTATIVES (the leaders actually seems to forget that after elections).
Unless and until the leadership shows their seriousness towards this problem and start a campaign to educate the masses, the masses would not be even aware of the effects and catastrophic situations that awaits them.
Climate change is not a national threat, (No, don’t worry, Bush’s gone, thank god!), it’s universal. The efforts to tackle this needs to be taken collectively and should be binding, regardless of the clout of a country and its bank balances. We cannot have countries like India and China always in disagreement with the world and US always trying to stamp its authority. There must be a solution and we must learn to cooperate.
As they say- You can run, but you can’t hide!
